United States presidential election, 2012
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The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States on December 17, 2012, will be chosen. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for a second and final term during this election.
The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.
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Electoral College changes
The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2009 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.[1]
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Safe Democratic States (Democratic 2000, 2004, 2008)
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Safe Republican States (Republican 2000, 2004, 2008)
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Swing States
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States in green represent states that are predicted to gain votes, due to reapportionment based on the most recent Census. States in maroon represent states that are predicted to lose votes. This would give the Democratic Party a net loss of six electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 251; the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 180; and swing states a net loss of one electoral vote, for a national total of 107.
Party conventions
- September 3–6, 2012: 2012 Democratic National Convention to be held.[4] Location TBD. The Democratic National Committee has selected Charlotte,[5] Cleveland,[6] Minneapolis[7] and St. Louis[8] as the finalist cities for hosting the event.[9][10]
Declared candidates
The following are individuals who have formally announced that they are running for president in 2012 and have filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Republican Party
- Fred Karger, political consultant and gay activist of California, has formed an exploratory committee for a 2012 run for the Republican presidential nomination.[11][12][13]
Independents
- Former journalist, author, and perennial independent candidate Joe Schriner of Ohio [14][15]
Presumptive candidates
The following are individuals who are or have been the subject of speculation in prominent media sources as being possible presidential contenders in the 2012 election. The speculation may stem from noted media analysts and commentators, or from actions or comments made by the individuals themselves — which suggest the possibility of a presidential run — as reported in reliable media sources.
Democratic
- President Barack Obama is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been nominated by his party. The most recent case of an incumbent president declining to seek reelection was in 1968, when Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to seek a second full term. The most recent credible primary challenge to a sitting Democratic President came from Senator Edward Kennedy against President Jimmy Carter during the 1980 United States Presidential Election. Congressman Dennis Kucinich stated in August 2010 that he will not run against President Obama in the 2012 Democratic presidential primaries. [16]
Republican
None of the following has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. The following individuals are currently speculated about as possible candidates. It is common for popular individuals to wait to announce their candidacies until later in the election cycle.
- Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi[17][18]
- Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton of Maryland[19][20]
- Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida[21][22]
- Businessman and radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia[23][24]
- Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey[25][26]
- Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana [27][28][29]
- Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich of Georgia[30][31]
- Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas[32][33]
- Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana[34][35][36][37]
- Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico[38][39]
- Former Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin of Alaska[40][41]
- Former Governor George Pataki of New York[42][43]
- Representative Ron Paul of Texas [44][45]
- Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota[46][47]
- Governor Rick Perry of Texas[48][49]
- General David Petraeus of New Hampshire[50][51]
- Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts[52][53]
- Former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Marco Rubio of Florida[54][55]
- Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania[56][57]
- Senator John Thune of South Dakota[58][59]
Constitution Party
No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Constitution Party nomination.
Green Party
No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Green Party nomination.
Libertarian
No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. The following individuals are currently speculated about as possible candidates.
- Entrepreneur and 2008 Libertarian Party vice-presidential nominee Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada[60][61]
Independent
The following are individuals are currently speculated about as possible candidates.
- Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York[62][63]
- Television journalist and commentator Lou Dobbs of New Jersey[64][65]
- Attorney, consumer advocate, and perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader of Connecticut[66][67]
See also
- Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
- Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
- The annual straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference provides a barometer for conservative support of candidates.
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 "Congressional Apportionment: 2010 Projections Based Upon State Estimates as of July 1, 2009". Clark H. Bensen. 2009-12-23. http://www.polidata.org/news.htm#20091223. Retrieved 2010-02-02. Polidata.org (December 23, 2009). "MID-RECESSION MIGRATION: APPORTIONMENT IN 2010 - Population Trends for the 2000s; the 2009 Estimates" (PDF). Press release. http://www.polidata.org/census/wpr_il23a_pest_2009.pdf. Retrieved June 13, 2010.
- ↑ Barr, Andy, and Mike Allen (May 12, 2010) "Republicans pick Tampa for 2012 convention", Politico. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
- ↑ Lush, Tamara (May 12, 2010) "Tampa wins bid to host 2012 GOP convention", The Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
- ↑ Smith, Ben (April 5, 2010) "DNC 2012: Mark your calendars", Politico. Retrieved April 13, 2010.
- ↑ (December 2, 2009) "Blue city. Blue state. Blue convention?", News & Observer. Retrieved December 2, 2009.
- ↑ (July 1, 2010) "Democrats name Cleveland a finalist", Akron Beacon Journal. Retrieved July 1, 2010.
- ↑ Kessler, Pat; Brown, Heather (May 22, 2010) "Minneapolis Bids For DNC In 2012", WCCO-TV. Retrieved May 24, 2010.
- ↑ Tritto, Christopher (April 16, 2010) "St. Louis City makes play for DNC convention", St. Louis Business Journal. Retrieved April 16, 2010.
- ↑ Zeleny, Jeff (July 1, 2010) "Four Cities Vie for 2012 Democratic Convention", The New York Times. Retrieved July 1, 2010.
- ↑ Hamby, Peter (July 1, 2010) "DNC names four cities as finalists to host 2012 convention", CNN.com. Retrieved July 1, 2010.
- ↑ Good, Chris (August 11, 2010) "Fred Karger: The Gay-Rights Bogeyman of the GOP Presidential Race", The Atlantic. Retrieved August 12, 2010.
- ↑ Winters, Rosemary. "LGBT FYI: A gay Republican president?" Salt Lake City Tribune July 29, 2010, Retrieved August 12, 2010.
- ↑ Clayworth, Jason. "Iowa Politics Insider: Corndogs, Culver and Karger" Des Moines Register August 11, 2010
- ↑ Feather, Carl E. (January 14, 2009) "In the 2008 presidential campaign, it was Joe the Plumber. In 2012, it’s going to be Joe the Painter", The Star Beacon. Retrieved February 23, 2010.
- ↑ Place, Rich (August 14, 2009) "Not Your ‘Average Joe’", The Post-Journal. Retrieved February 23, 2010.
- ↑ Stephanopoulos, George (August 10, 2010) "Rep. Kucinich Won't Challenge Obama in Primary", ABC News. Retrieved August 10, 2010.
- ↑ Leibovich, Mark (June 20, 2010) "G.O.P. Stalwart Says Come, the Gulf’s Fine", New York Times. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ Vogel, Kenneth P. (June 24, 2010) "Haley Barbour's fundraising takes off", Politico. Retrieved June 25, 2010.
- ↑ Mooney, Alexander (August 30, 2010) "2012 Watch: Bolton considering a presidential run?", CNN Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2010.
- ↑ Condon, Stephanie (August 30, 2010) "John Bolton Suggests He Could Consider 2012 Presidential Bid", CBS News.com. Retrieved August 31, 2010.
- ↑ Gormley, Michael (June 2, 2010) "Jeb Bush preaches capitalism for GOP revival", Miami Herald. Retrieved June 9, 2010.
- ↑ Bai, Matt (June 22, 2010) "For Jeb Bush, Life Defending the Family Name", The New York Times. Retrieved June 25, 2010.
- ↑ Blake, Aaron (April 10, 2010) "Black Republican radio host suggests he will run for president", The Hill. Retrieved July 12, 2010.
- ↑ Lewis, Matt (July 12, 2010) "Herman Cain: Possible 'Dark Horse' 2012 GOP Presidential Candidate", Politics Daily. Retrieved July 12, 2010.
- ↑ (April 26,2010)"Chris Christie for President?", The Washington Post. Retrieved July 11, 2010.
- ↑ (May 27, 2010)"Christie for President", The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved July 11, 2010.
- ↑ Groppe, Maureen (June 15, 2010) "Daniels key critic of health care plan, may be eyeing presidential run", Louisville Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 16, 2010.
- ↑ (June 20, 2010) "Ind.'s Daniels urged to run in 2012", UPI. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ Weidenbener, Lesley Stedman (July 4, 2010) "Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels mulls a run for president - sort of", The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 12, 2010.
- ↑ Hamby, Peter (April 23, 2010) "Gingrich to help Iowa GOP raise money", CNN.com. Retrieved April 23, 2010.
- ↑ Mark, David (May 21, 2010) "Gingrich Newt-ered for 2012?", Politico. Retrieved May 21, 2010.
- ↑ Douthat, Ross (June 21, 2010) "The Secret Frontrunner", New York Times. Retrieved June 22, 2010.
- ↑ Cillizza, Chris (June 28, 2010) "Could Mike Huckabee be the 2012 presidential nominee?", The Washington Post. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
- ↑ "Oil Spill Could Turn Political Fortunes for Gulf Coast Politicians". Fox News. July 28, 2010. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/28/oil-spill-turn-political-fortunes-gulf-coast-politicians/. Retrieved August 30, 2010.
- ↑ Sean J. Miller (August 23, 2010). "Gov. Jindal's book to be released in November". The Hill. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/115383-gov-jindals-book-to-be-released-in-november. Retrieved August 30, 2010.
- ↑ Jeremy P. Jacobs (August 16, 2010). "Don't Cross Jindal Off The 2012 GOP Ticket Yet". National Journal. http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/dont_cross_jind.php. Retrieved August 30, 2010.
- ↑ Olympia Meola (August 12, 2010). "National Governors Association to meet in Williamsburg in 2012". Richmond Times-Dispatch. http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/2010/aug/12/govs12-ar-422808/. Retrieved August 30, 2010.
- ↑ Boerema, Jurgen (February 15, 2010) "Former N.M Gov. Johnson deflects question on 2012 bid", The Hill. Retrieved February 17, 2010.
- ↑ Stanage, Niall (May 5, 2010) "The most interesting Republican you've never heard of", Salon.com. Retrieved May 25, 2010.
- ↑ (April 15, 2010) "Mitt Romney-Sarah Palin in 2012? You betcha!", Boston Herald. Retrieved April 15, 2010.
- ↑ Patton, Doug (June 15, 2010) "Sarah Will Have Many Markers to Call in for 2012", Canada Free Press. Retrieved June 15, 2010.
- ↑ (April 14, 2010-) "Excerpts: George E. Pataki", Wall Street Journal. Retrieved on April 21, 2010.
- ↑ Blake, Aaron; Cusack, Bob (April 24, 2010) "Pataki won't rule out 2012 presidential bid", The Hill. Retrieved April 26, 2010.
- ↑ (April 15, 2010) "Rasmussen: Ron Paul Polls Even With Obama for 2012", Newsmax. Retrieved April 16, 2010.
- ↑ Pappas, Alex (June 21, 2010)"Ron Paul says GOP will be more open to libertarian-minded nominee in 2012", The Daily Caller. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ (June 16, 2010) "Governor Tim Pawlenty Starts PACs in Iowa, New Hampshire, Builds for 2012", Life News. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
- ↑ "Tim Pawlenty, Possible GOP 2012 Prospect, Sets up PACs in Iowa and New Hampshire". politicsdaily.com. 2010-06-16. http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/06/16/tim-pawlenty-a-possible-gop-2012-prospect-sets-up-pacs-in-iowa. Retrieved 2010-06-30.
- ↑ (November 17, 2010) "GOP Dark Horses for 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 3, 2010.
- ↑ "Perry Says No Bid for President". Politicalwire.com. 2010-04-17. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/17/perry_says_no_bid_for_president.html. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
- ↑ Ambinder, Marc (March 12, 2010) "Petraeus to New Hampshire! Petraeus to New Hampshire?", The Atlantic. Retrieved March 24, 2010.
- ↑ Harnden, Toby (April 3, 2010) "David Petraeus for President: Run General, run", The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved April 3, 2010.
- ↑ Wagner, John (June 10, 2010) "Romney headlining Md. GOP fundraising dinner", The Washington Post. Retrieved June 10, 2010.
- ↑ Bennet, George"Florida 2012 groundwork? Romney endorses McCollum, 13 other GOPers", The Palm Beach Post. Retrieved June 16, 2010.
- ↑ "Rubio's path". April 7, 2010. http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0410/Rubios_path.html#. Retrieved April 7, 2010.
- ↑ Murray, Mark (April 7, 2010) "Marco Rubio and 2012", MSNBC.com. Retrieved April 7, 2010.
- ↑ Preston, Mark (June 15, 2010) "Potential 2012 Republican candidate headed to Iowa", CNN. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ (June 19, 2010) "Sunday pops", Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ Goldman, LeRoy (May 27, 2010) "Thune is the one to watch in GOP", The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved June 3, 2010.
- ↑ Drucker, David M. (June 21, 2010) "Thune’s Popularity Is About to Rise", Roll Call. Retrieved June 21, 2010.
- ↑ Mannies, Jo (May 30, 2010) "Libertarians vote to stay true to the past", St. Louis Beacon. Retrieved June 3, 2010.
- ↑ Zaitchik, Alexander (June 22, 2010) "In Its Heterodox Media Star, an Identity Crisis for Libertarian Party", The Washington Independent. Retrieved June 28, 2010.
- ↑ (June 8, 2010) "Will Bloomberg run for President? He is looking at the current Political Climate", The Huffington Post. Retrieved June 9, 2010.
- ↑ ""Bloomberg says to lay off BP"". Politico.com. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38442.html. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
- ↑ Mason, Julie (May 19, 2010) "Checking in....with Lou Dobbs", The Washington Examiner. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
- ↑ Edgecliffe, Andrew (May 29, 2010) "Dobbs drops anchor in Tea Party waters", Financial Times. Retrieved June 1, 2010.
- ↑ Weigel, David (June 21, 2010) "Ralph Nader not ruling out 2012 presidential bid", The Washington Post. Retrieved June 24, 2010.
- ↑ Zimmermann, Eric (June 21, 2010) "Nader blasts Obama, won't rule out 2012 run", The Hill. Retrieved June 24, 2010.
External links
- Mytimetovote.com - Contains voting information by State including seats repartition, poll location, and voter registration.
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